![]() They would impact trade and investment on a global scale, leaving few countries untouched. The disruptions would be felt immediately and would be difficult to reverse. Unsurprisingly, we find that the scale of economic activity at risk of disruption from a conflict in the Taiwan Strait is immense: well over two trillion dollars in a blockade scenario, even before factoring in international responses or second-order effects. Our work builds on research dating back to 2004 that examined Taiwan’s global economic relationships. Over the course of 2022, as the war in Ukraine shone a spotlight on geopolitical risks, Rhodium Group examined the potential global economic disruptions resulting from a hypothetical conflict between China and Taiwan. Yet the risks of a crisis around Taiwan have risen, making these questions more important than ever for policymakers and business leaders. How a conflict would unfold is impossible to predict, complicating any assessment of its economic and commercial consequences. ![]() ![]() Recent tensions in the Taiwan Strait have stoked fears of a conflict between China and Taiwan, and raised questions about the implications of such a scenario for the global economy. ![]()
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